ENSO Prediction based on Climate Networks

 

The aim of this website is to predict El Niño (EN) events based on climate network methods (see [1,2]). We generated climate networks for each 10 days from 1950 to 2014 based on the surface air temperature data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis I project. We calculated the average link strength S between the EN basin and other nodes for each network. We found that when the values of S get across a threshold Θ from below, then we predict the existence of an EN event in the next 12 months. The hit rates can be above 0.5.

Here, when the users input the threshold value and a date, we will predict whether there is an EN event in the next 12 months with a certain hit rate.

[1] J. Ludescher, A. Gozolchiani, M.I. Bogachev, A. Bunde, S. Havlin, and H.J. Schellnhuber, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 2014 110 (29) 11742-11745.

[2] J. Ludescher, A. Gozolchiani, M.I. Bogachev, A. Bunde, S. Havlin, and H.J. Schellnhuber, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 2014 111 (6) 2064-2066.

Input:

Θ: a threshold of the average link strengh sequence (e.g. 2.82).

dd-mm-yyyy: a date point for the prediction (e.g. 01-01-1990).