ENSO Prediction based on Climate Networks
The aim of this website is to predict El Niño (EN) events based on
climate network methods (see [1,2]). We generated climate networks for each 10 days
from 1950 to 2014 based on the surface air temperature data from the
National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for
Atmospheric Research Reanalysis I project. We calculated the average link
strength S between the EN basin and other nodes for each network. We found
that when the values of S get across a threshold Θ from below, then we
predict the existence of an EN event in the next 12 months. The hit rates
can be above 0.5.
Here, when the users input the threshold value and a date, we will
predict whether there is an EN event in the next 12 months with a certain hit rate.
 J. Ludescher, A. Gozolchiani, M.I. Bogachev, A. Bunde, S. Havlin, and H.J. Schellnhuber, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 2014 110 (29) 11742-11745.
 J. Ludescher, A. Gozolchiani, M.I. Bogachev, A. Bunde, S. Havlin, and H.J. Schellnhuber, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 2014 111 (6) 2064-2066.
Θ: a threshold of the average link strengh sequence (e.g. 2.82).
dd-mm-yyyy: a date point for the prediction (e.g. 01-01-1990).